Recommended Model Selection
Draw
36.4% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 36.4% calibrated confidence and +6.4 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.9100:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.9100:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.908469835662600:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 61.908469835662600:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 60.8100:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.399901474157300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.5200:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.4000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 36.4000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.786406791100400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Valencia
Recent Form:
D
D
D
D
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Villarreal
Recent Form:
L
L
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: