Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
80.7% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +12.7 pts above the configured gate at 80.7%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 57.372412059123400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 57.372412059123400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 78.5800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 78.9900:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 83.2300:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.6500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Hoffenheim
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Mainz 05
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: