Recommended Model Selection
Away Win
83.7% confidence
Configured 70.0% gate
Away Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +13.7 pts above the configured gate at 83.7%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 86.3200:F1%
Gate: 70:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 83.7300:F1%
Gate: 70:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Faetano
Recent Form:
L
L
D
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ SP La Fiorita
Recent Form:
D
D
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.50
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.75
Clean Sheet Frequency:
25:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
50:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: