Recommended Model Selection
Draw
33.1% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 33.1% calibrated confidence and +3.1 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.5700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.1000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.1000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.097152655884300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 33.097152655884300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Leones del Norte
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Libertad FC
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
4.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: