Recommended Model Selection
Draw
37.6% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 37.6% calibrated confidence and +7.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 42.120693595954300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 37.64154320871400:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.58467903424800:F1%
Gate: 69:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.58467903424800:F1%
Gate: 69:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Negele Arsi Ketema
Recent Form:
D
D
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.50
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.50
Clean Sheet Frequency:
50:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
50:F0%
✈️ Adama City
Recent Form:
D
D
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: