Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
78.9% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +10.9 pts above the configured gate at 78.9%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 81.6700:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 81.4200:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 78.8500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 78.8500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 78.8500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Chelsea
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Roma
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: