Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
82.4% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +14.4 pts above the configured gate at 82.4%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 63.0700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 59.0500:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 59.0500:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 91.0900:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 91.3800:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 84.3600:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 82.4000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 84.0800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 83.9900:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 PSV
Recent Form:
D
D
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Willem II
Recent Form:
W
W
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
4.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: