Recommended Model Selection
Draw
38.8% confidence
Configured 30.0% gate
Draw cleared the configured threshold with 38.8% calibrated confidence and +8.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.2000:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.0900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 41.0900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 38.7900:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 38.787918001911100:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.1200:F1%
Gate: 72:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.0400:F1%
Gate: 71:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.122577725681500:F1%
Gate: 72:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.1200:F1%
Gate: 72:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 73.1200:F1%
Gate: 72:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Defensores Unidos
Recent Form:
W
W
W
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
100:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Deportivo Laferrere
Recent Form:
D
D
D
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: