Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
79.0% confidence
Tuned 76.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 79.0% calibrated confidence and +3.0 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 78.5900:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 78.9900:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 78.9900:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 87.1500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 83.1500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 87.1900:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Benfica
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
✈️ Lech Poznan
Recent Form:
W
L
L
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: