Recommended Model Selection
Over 2.5
76.7% confidence
Tuned 76.0% gate
Over 2.5 cleared the tuned threshold with 76.7% calibrated confidence and +0.7 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 55.8400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 76.7300:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 72.7700:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 72.5000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 72.5000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 72.5000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Form:
L
W
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
3.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Marseille
Recent Form:
W
W
W
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: