Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
61.6% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 61.6% calibrated confidence and +3.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.600058092874800:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Sama Al Sarhan
Recent Form:
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
4.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.67
Clean Sheet Frequency:
33.300000000000004:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
66.7:F0%
✈️ Sahl Horan
Recent Form:
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
100:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: