Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
61.1% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 61.1% calibrated confidence and +3.1 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 59.2400:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 70.4200:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 72.0000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 70.3100:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 70.3100:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.060891351223700:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.0600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.060891351223700:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Esperance Sportive de Tunis
Recent Form:
W
L
W
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
✈️ US Monastir
Recent Form:
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.50
Clean Sheet Frequency:
50:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
50:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: