Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
61.4% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 61.4% calibrated confidence and +3.4 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.4300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.4300:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.427773055745600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.427773055745600:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Forli
Recent Form:
L
D
D
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Gubbio
Recent Form:
D
D
D
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: