Recommended Model Selection
Away Win
83.0% confidence
Configured 70.0% gate
Away Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +13.0 pts above the configured gate at 83.0%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 82.9100:F1%
Gate: 70:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 82.9600:F1%
Gate: 70:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Estrela da Amadora
Recent Form:
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Benfica
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: