Recommended Model Selection
Under 2.5
61.0% confidence
Configured 58.0% gate
Under 2.5 cleared the configured threshold with 61.0% calibrated confidence and +3.0 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 55.5800:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 31.7700:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 32.8300:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Draw
Draw
Confidence: 34.1600:F1%
Gate: 30:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.0000:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 61.0000:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Spartak Varna
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
3.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Arda
Recent Form:
W
D
D
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: