Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
80.0% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +12.0 pts above the configured gate at 80.0%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.8000:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 56.8000:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 77.0300:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 84.2500:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 83.4800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 79.9800:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Sebat Genclikspor
Recent Form:
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.50
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.50
Clean Sheet Frequency:
50:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
50:F0%
✈️ Kastamonuspor
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
4.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: