Recommended Model Selection
Away Win
83.3% confidence
Configured 70.0% gate
Away Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +13.3 pts above the configured gate at 83.3%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 83.5600:F1%
Gate: 70:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 83.3000:F1%
Gate: 70:F1%
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 83.3000:F1%
Gate: 70:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Slovenia
Recent Form:
W
W
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
80:F0%
✈️ England
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
4.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
80:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: