Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
76.4% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +8.4 pts above the configured gate at 76.4%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.1200:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.1300:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 80.1300:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 76.3600:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 England
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
4.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
80:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ Croatia
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
4.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
Head-to-Head Track Record
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: