Recommended Model Selection
Away Win
75.1% confidence
Configured 70.0% gate
Away Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +5.1 pts above the configured gate at 75.1%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Away Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 75.0500:F1%
Gate: 70:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Lye Town
Recent Form:
L
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.33
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.67
Clean Sheet Frequency:
66.7:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
33.300000000000004:F0%
✈️ Peterborough United
Recent Form:
L
D
L
W
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: