Recommended Model Selection
Over 1.5
80.9% confidence
Configured 74.0% gate
Over 1.5 cleared the configured threshold with 80.9% calibrated confidence and +6.9 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 66.1500:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 66.146398680056200:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
Over 1.5
Over1.5Goals
Confidence: 80.9400:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Over 1.5
Over1.5Goals
Confidence: 80.93737682036500:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Sampaio Correa RJ
Recent Form:
W
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.33
Clean Sheet Frequency:
66.7:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
33.300000000000004:F0%
✈️ Madureira
Recent Form:
L
L
D
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: