Recommended Model Selection
Over 1.5
93.7% confidence
Configured 74.0% gate
Over 1.5 cleared the configured threshold with 93.7% calibrated confidence and +19.7 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
No BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 73.6366436171800:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
No BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 67.8600:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 97.642660643511800:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 97.6400:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Over 1.5
Over1.5Goals
Confidence: 93.737170182190800:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Over 1.5
Over1.5Goals
Confidence: 94.3500:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 77.0600:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Over 2.5
Over2.5Goals
Confidence: 77.062108133316400:F1%
Gate: 76:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 86.3700:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 86.3100:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Finland
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ San Marino
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: