Recommended Model Selection
Over 1.5
85.5% confidence
Configured 74.0% gate
Over 1.5 cleared the configured threshold with 85.5% calibrated confidence and +11.5 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
Over 1.5
Over1.5Goals
Confidence: 85.4900:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Vitoria
Recent Form:
L
L
L
D
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Bahia
Recent Form:
L
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
Head-to-Head Track Record
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: