Recommended Model Selection
1X
87.2% confidence
Configured 74.0% gate
1X cleared the configured threshold with 87.2% calibrated confidence and +13.2 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 87.171324565886200:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 87.171324565886200:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 68.8200:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 68.8200:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Cittadella
Recent Form:
D
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.20
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Folgore Caratese
Recent Form:
L
D
D
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
2.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: