Recommended Model Selection
1X
84.8% confidence
Configured 74.0% gate
1X cleared the configured threshold with 84.8% calibrated confidence and +10.8 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
No BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 64.1000:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
No BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 64.1000:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 84.7600:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 84.7600:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 66.6800:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Under 2.5
Under2.5Goals
Confidence: 66.6800:F1%
Gate: 58:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Alvarado
Recent Form:
L
W
D
D
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.80
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
80:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
20:F0%
✈️ Sarmiento de la Banda
Recent Form:
L
L
W
W
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
2.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: