Recommended Model Selection
1X
84.6% confidence
Configured 74.0% gate
1X cleared the configured threshold with 84.6% calibrated confidence and +10.6 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 83.844155113733800:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 84.619968100058400:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Virtus Verona
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
40:F0%
✈️ Fiorenzuola
Recent Form:
L
W
W
L
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.60
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
100:F0%
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: