Recommended Model Selection
Home Win
84.9% confidence
Configured 68.0% gate
Home Win was published because calibrated confidence sits +16.9 pts above the configured gate at 84.9%.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
No BTTS
BothTeamsScore
Confidence: 74.4700:F1%
Gate: 55:F1%
1X
DoubleChance
Confidence: 97.5100:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Over 1.5
Over1.5Goals
Confidence: 76.2200:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Home Win
StraightWin
Confidence: 84.9000:F1%
Gate: 68:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Lithuania
Recent Form:
D
D
L
L
W
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.40
Clean Sheet Frequency:
60:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
✈️ Liechtenstein
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.00
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
1.20
Clean Sheet Frequency:
20:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
0:F0%
Head-to-Head Track Record
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: