Recommended Model Selection
Over 1.5
75.5% confidence
Configured 74.0% gate
Over 1.5 cleared the configured threshold with 75.5% calibrated confidence and +1.4 pts of breathing room.
Model Market Probabilities
Blended signals from Dixon-Coles Poisson simulations, de-vigged market lines, and calibrated probability matrices.
X2
DoubleChance
Confidence: 85.6700:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Over 1.5
Over1.5Goals
Confidence: 75.4500:F1%
Gate: 74:F1%
Form & Goal Trends
Statistical distribution indicators derived from recent fixtures and scoring dynamics.
🏠 Eritrea
Recent Form:
L
L
L
L
D
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
0.60
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
3.00
Clean Sheet Frequency:
0:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
✈️ Guinea
Recent Form:
W
W
W
W
L
Avg Goals Scored / Match:
1.40
Avg Goals Conceded / Match:
0.80
Clean Sheet Frequency:
40:F0%
Both Teams Scored Rate:
60:F0%
Head-to-Head Track Record
About This Prediction Model
MatchPredictor applies statistical goal distribution algorithms (Dixon-Coles & Poisson modeling) combined with market odds calibration. We use historical Brier scores to optimize threshold gates nightly. Want to understand the mathematics behind our forecasts? Read our detailed guides: